Basketball Ratings model confirmation

One of the things that I have to look at, along with putting all the scores into the mathematical ratings model,  is that I need to confirm that the model is actually predicting sound spreads.  Now, of course, these ratings are for teams with 15 to 17 year-old kids who can have good and bad days (don't we all?)   And some teams match up better (or mismatch terribly) than their ratings.  A small, quick team can beat a taller, slower team with their defensive pressure and quickness to the basket.

So, given the disclaimers, here's a look at some of yesterday's game results vs. the ratings I posted yesterday afternoon and a few predictions for upcoming games tonight, Saturday or next Tuesday.  There are couple of games, like Raytown and William Chrisman that are a toss-up.  Any game with a spread of less than 5 could be a toss-up.  A key turn-over or missed shot can change the final score.

And finally, this is not something to take to Vegas.  It's just a way to quantify all those coaches and newspaper polls that might have more opinion than fact.  It's great to hear from parents that tell me the spreads were really close for their team in a cross state  tournament.  It means that the model is working.

Check back early next week to see how the predictions worked out.

Ratings can be located at
https://gramps2020.blogspot.com/2020/01/heres-latest-updated-ratings-for-all.html
Latest Missouri Boys basketball ratings

Model validation
Game Rating Spread Actual
CBC 136.5 16.4 16
Hazelwood Central 120.1
MICDS 122.3 25.6 13
Carthage 96.7
Rock Bridge 121.7 13.3 15
Miller Career 108.4
Lutheran North 114.1 4 4
Priory 110.1
Rockwood Summit 111.2 7.9 6
Parkway South 103.3
Glendale 117.3 14.5 4
DuBourg 102.8
Predictions 1/24/2020
Game Rating Spread Actual?
McCluer North 116.1 5
Parkway Central 111.1
Hazelwood West 114.8 4
Rockwood Summit 111.0
U City 116.0 11
Clayton 105.2
Park Hill Central 115.5 26
Potosi 89.5
O'Fallon IL 131.6 19
Vianney 112.5
Lift for Life 118.9 12
Whitfield 107.4
Francis Howell 134.7 48
Francis Howell North 86.9
Lafayette  117.3 5
Marquette 112.0
Raymore-Peculiar 126.4 8
North Kansas City 118.0
Raytown 123.5 1
William Chrisman 122.9
Joplin 127.0 54
McDonald County 73.3
Dora 121.8 23
Lakeland 98.9
South Iron 125.0 33
Fredericktown 91.8

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