First Look - Missouri Boys Basketball 2019-2020 season - St. Louis Yellow Pool Conference

I know this is a bit early to start thinking about the boys basketball season because we just put the summer AAU session behind us, but with all the accolades that have been coming for the teams in the Yellow Pool conference, I thought I would start to trickle out some thoughts.

First off, some might be scratching their heads about "Yellow Pool".  This is the second year of the St. Louis Suburban Public High School Athletic and Activities Association shuffling of the traditional conferences to provide more fair and competitive balance while also increasing and promoting diversity, sportsmanship and safety while supporting an understanding of Missouri Learning  Standards. I liked the new conference setups but many did not.  Those conference matchups are currently under review and there might be some minor changes in year two but I thought I would start to analyze each pool on a weekly basis.

I am starting with the Yellow Pool, which features Hazelwood Central, Jennings, Lafayette, Marquette, Parkway South, Ritenour and Webster Groves, some pretty darn good basketball teams.  It seems appropriate to start with Hazelwood Central since they have the players getting all the hype, coming off the AAU season.

I am working off of the Post Dispatch basketball page so some info may be outdated.  I compared the number of returnees, percentage of returnees, percentage of scoring and average height of returnees.  I also looked at lost scoring from departed players from graduation, and if I was aware of it, transfers to other schools.  I may have to go back and re-analyze as we get closer to December and the rosters are finalized but here's my first pass with some additional comments on where I think the teams rating (my algorithm) will be for the 2019-2020 season.  I will also let you know, up front, that I analyze statistics.  I don't get my feet on the ground like Earl Austin, Jr. who knows the players so, so well.  I looked at the same stats last year and am trying to find a way to predict how returnees and returnee scoring might predict success in the coming year.

Here we go.....


Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Hazelwood Central 117 16 13 11 69% 66% 73.70
73.10
Returnees
I don't think any team I analyzed had more returnees than HW Central.  Cole Farrell, Aahmod Scarbrough, David Roberts, Jai Graham, Caleb Jones, Tevin Gowins, plus 2023  newcomer Jayden Nicholson.  This team is loaded with talent.

Significant Graduates
Isaiah Ervin (31% of scoring)

Bottom Line:  Hazelwood Central had dropped from a 22-7 record (124 rating) in 2017-2018 because they had 21% returnees and only 35% of the scoring coming back.  I expect them to return to a 25+ win season and a 125-130 rating.  The only team holding them back from being the top team in the St. Louis area is a team directly SE across town.... Mehlville.  Expect good things from the Hawks.



Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Jennings 115 19 9 8 53% 39% 71.6 74.1

Returnees
Three strong players in Trevon Love, Damarion Shanklin, Karl Moore, all with mentions in Prep Hoops Missouri at some time.

Significant Graduates
Elijah Hicks, Donnel Carter (38% of scoring)

Bottom Line:
Jennings made big improvement from an 8-13 record in 2017-2018 with 62% returnees and but only 35% scoring returned.  The three that return form a strong nucleus to a highly consistent program that should maintain or improve on their rating and record.  Look for a 20 win season at Jennings this year.


Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Lafayette 112 11 15 9 60% 45% 73.60 74.30

Returnees
Ryan Campbell, the top scorer from last season, is the main returnee.

Significant Graduates
Big man Trey Griffey, Jack Schmitt, Will Tulloch (53% of scoring) have all graduated.

Bottom Line:
Lafayette was 15-12 in 2017-2018 and brought back 57% of the team and over 50% of the scoring so the 11-15 record was a disappointment to all.  With 60% returning, if the guys who saw limited action last year can step up, Lafayette should have a winning season.  If Campbell doesn't get that offensive support, it will be a long winter.



Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Marquette 118 20 6 8 50% 28% 73.60 73.50
Returnees
Ethan Jenkins, Jeremiah Jennings, Hunter Hacala

Significant Graduates and transfers
Jason Montgomery, Jalen White to graduation.   
Devon Barshow (transfer to McCluer) and Ilyass Harris (transfer to Ritter) 
(75% of scoring)

Bottom Line:
Marquette had 80% returnees for last season's 20-6 record after an 18-10 record in the 2017-2018 campaign.  Before the transfers of Barshow in mid-June and Harris at the beginning of July, Marquette looked to be a strong contender who would pick up where they left off.  Now, with those two gone, the team will scrap a bit but don't be too surprised if they still win 18 games.  Hacala is a diamond in the rough... shooting 45% from beyond the arc for LHBA this summer.



Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Parkway South 107 11 17 6 46% 54% 75.70 75.50
Returnees
Adam Sommer, Isaiah Esker

Significant Graduates
Paul Stone, Greg Rollins, Josh Skidmore, Mitch Ellebrecht (46% of scoring)

Bottom Line:
After a 12-14 record in 2017-2018, Parkway South had 57% of their lineup coming back and should have done better than a 11-17 record.  The good news is that the two guys that are returning were almost 60% of their scoring last year so they are the nucleus of a great offensive machine.  But South has to build a good team around these two to improve on last year.   If they can, they will improve on their power rating and record.  If they don't, teams will double both Sommer and Esker and shut those two down and South will have another long season.  Let's hope they have some talent to back these two great kids up.



Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Ritenour 93 3 22 9 53% 58% 71.50 72.60

Returnees
Brandon Clarke, Jakobi Flynn, Johnny Mayberry

Significant Graduates
Darrell Bolden, Damon Sanders (42% of scoring)

Bottom Line:
Ritenour was 10-16 the year before with 57% of team back but it didn't equate into success for them as they ended the season at 3-22.  With the big three back, they have more scoring power than the previous year (27% returned) so I expect that their record will improve too.  How much will remain to be seen.  Is a 500 record in the realm of possibility for the Huskies?



Yellow Pool 2018-2019 Record # % % Avg 2020 Avg 2019
2018-19 Rating Wins Losses  Returnees Return Scoring Hgt(") Hgt(")
Webster Groves 124 22 4 9 60% 11% 70.30 72.70
Returnees
Anthony Phiffer, Matt Enright, Gary Ford

Significant Graduates
Joe Jones, Amorey Womack, Steven Wright, Ray Adams, Dallas King (89% of scoring)

Bottom Line:
Two seasons ago, the Statesmen travelled around the country to play a national schedule and won a state championship with a very misleading 18-9 record.  They had 80% of their team back this past year and stayed with home cooking for the most part for a 22-4 record.  This coming year, they have three great players to build around in Ford, Enright and Phiffer but you need to buy soap boxes for two of the three for the team picture (Enright and Ford are both around 5'8").  With a solid program like Webster, I am sure there are some tall drinks of water somewhere that will fill out their lineup at forward and center.  Don't expect a 25 win season, but the Statesmen will pick a lot of peoples pockets and air out a lot of threes when they aren't fast breaking and pressing you to death.


So that is my Yellow Pool conference analysis.  Assuming there is a Yellow Pool when the dust all settles.   Hope you enjoyed the analysis.  If you did, like my blog on Twitter or make a comment here or there.

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