Wrong Again

You have probably heard of the Mark Twain saying, "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"?  I think he stole the line from Disraeli but that doesn't matter.  Wrong again, Gramps.  According to my wife, I have been wrong my entire life (just joking, I did get the reason they names Agency, Iowa right one time when we drove through it.  An Indian outpost, or should I say Native American outpost).

Anyways, I gushed over Dora in my Class One post the other day and the only thing that Dora fans (and coaches) could find was fault in my reasoning why South Iron actually had a better rating for their season without weighting their loss to eventual state champion Dora.  I said the schedule might have been tougher for South Iron and, of course, we all know that Dora went out and played some tough teams from Illinois, Mississippi and Oklahoma.  That schedule made them pretty darn tough down the stretch.  Coach Luna responded to my tweet with the teams they beat so I went back to check my calculations.  And, I was wrong, so to speak.  That's where Mark Twain comes in...

I looked at all the opponents, Max Preps ratings and my ratings along with the scoring differential (see the table below).  Bottom line is that Dora's opponents rated a 96.5 and South Iron was a 93.6 on my ratings system.  End of story right.  Nope.

Looking at Max Preps national opponents ranking, Dora's opponents ranked just over 7100 in the country while the Panthers were 9900+ average ranking.  On the state level, Dora's opponents were ranked 217 on average while South Iron's were 280th state ranking. I am not all that thrilled with MaxPreps but it was a start.  I prefer my ratings which make more sense.

On my ratings, the Missouri opponents for both teams averaged about 93.7 so their strength of schedules were similar without non-conference games.

So why would South Iron get a higher unweighted ranking?  They lost to Dora, beat Lesterville in three games by a lower scoring differentials than Dora and beat Greenwood and beat Hayti,  their other common opponent a larger differential.

The answer was scoring differential where South Iron beat opponents by 31 points vs. Dora's 27 point differential.  That was the difference, not schedule strength.  So I was wrong again.

Sorry Dora fans.  I apologize for the mis-statement in my class one blog, which I revised.  Can't wait to see the Falcons and Panthers play again next year.  Wish it was a state final and not a sectional game.



Dora Schedule Opponent
Coach Rick Luna National MO Gramps Winning 
Date Max Prep Rank 363 Score MaxPreps MaxPreps Rating Margin
  11/27 
 Washington    W   60 - 56 2724 121 130.5 4
 »  11/28  Tupelo    L   67 - 69 1484 28 128.5 -2
 »  11/29  Petersburg PORTA    W   83 - 57 11732 493 81.0 26
 »  11/30  Lanphier    W   72 - 64 759 33 119.3 6
12/5/2020 at Couch   (5-18) W   95 - 31 13000 475 70.5 64
12/9/2020 at Koshkonong   (2-20) W   88 - 25 13000 475 70.8 53
 »  12/12  Heritage Hall    W   65 - 60 (1 OT) 500 7 118.5 5
12/19/2020 Hayti   (19-9) W   84 - 67 5531 138 100.4 17
 »  12/26  Koshkonong   (2-20) W   85 - 37 14000 475 70.8 48
 »  12/27  Norwood   (18-11) W   60 - 28 9633 270 91.6 32
 »  12/28  Lesterville   (21-8) W   75 - 50 6276 163 100.8 25
 »  12/30  Thayer   (22-6) W   66 - 49 2316 56 106.3 17
1/4/2020 vs Billings   (20-7) W   89 - 49 3925 98 94.1 40
1/7/2020 at Alton   (21-8) W   87 - 56 3906 97 96.7 31
1/13/2020 at Bradleyville   (12-13) W   100 - 60 13028 371 75.2 40
1/17/2020 at Gainesville   (16-11) W   73 - 55 8304 219 88.3 18
1/21/2020 Mountain Grove   (5-21) W   93 - 40 10685 303 91.2 53
1/25/2020 vs Lakeland   (23-5) W   86 - 58 6170 159 98.3 28
 »  1/27  Mountain Grove   (5-21) W   80 - 60 10685 303 91.2 20
 »  1/30  Ava   (24-6) W   74 - 51 1830 44 108.4 23
 »  2/1  Hartville   (31-2) L   64 - 68 462 10 126.3 -4
2/4/2020 Bakersfield   (9-15) W   84 - 41 15038 431 73.7 43
2/7/2020 at Hartville   (31-2) W   69 - 61 (1 OT) 462 10 126.3 8
2/11/2020 Lutie   (8-17) W   88 - 49 14000 375 71.8 39
2/14/2020 Norwood   (18-11) W   83 - 53 9633 270 91.6 30
2/15/2020 Weaubleau   (21-6) W   79 - 45 4831 115 89.6 34
2/17/2020 at Clever   (14-13) W   72 - 54 5524 137 93.6 28
2/22/2028 Class 1 District 4 Tournament   
 »  2/22  Exeter   (3-21) W   111 - 51 18886 546 60.8 60
 »  2/25  Bradleyville   (12-13) W   85 - 47 13028 371 75.2 38
 »  2/28  Norwood   (18-11) W   84 - 57 9633 270 91.6 27
 »  3/3  South Iron   (29-1) W   59 - 54 1548 39 121.8 5
3/3/2013 Class 1 State Tournament   
 »  3/7  Delta   (25-6) W   106 - 70 4443 109 107.3 36
 »  3/12  Jefferson (Conception) with South Nodaway   (28-3) W   82 - 66 3000 125 112.3 16
 »  3/13  St. Elizabeth   (25-6) W   59 - 49 2189 53 105.2 10
AVERAGES 7123 217 96.5 27.0
South Iron Schedule Opponent
COACH DUSTY DINKINS National MO Gramps Winning 
Date Max Prep Rank 1548 Score MaxPreps MaxPreps Rating Margin
11/25/2020
 Bismarck   (1-22) W   105 - 9 19453 568 42.4 96
 »  11/27  Clearwater   (13-12) W   73 - 40 11404 330 89.2 33
 »  11/28  Lesterville   (21-8) W   64 - 59 6276 163 100.8 5
12/10/2020 Ellington   (13-12) W   64 - 41 10687 304 89.0 23
12/14/2020 vs Oak Ridge   (18-10) W   78 - 33 6826 175 100.3 55
12/20/2020 at Potosi   (4-21) W   76 - 46 15798 459 89.3 30
12/21/2020 vs Lift for Life Academy Charter   (20-10) W   70 - 56 4456 110 118.8 14
12/26/1931 64th Annual Bob Sechrest Jr. Central Christmas Tournament   
 »  12/26  Crystal City   (13-13) W   68 - 36 13219 375 83.0 32
 »  12/28  Jefferson (Festus)   (14-12) W   90 - 49 11805 341 99.3 41
 »  12/30  North County   (20-8) W   77 - 40 6863 179 99.7 37
 »  12/31  Central (Park Hills)   (21-8) W   73 - 57 4354 107 118.9 16
1/7/2020 Bunker   (15-11) W   88 - 44 11374 328 88.2 44
1/11/2020 at Greenwood   (26-4) W   82 - 70 605 39 117.6 12
1/14/2020 at Viburnum   (3-18) W   102 - 31 18964 551 74.9 71
1/18/2020 Hayti   (19-9) W   91 - 35 5531 138 100.4 56
1/20/2025 Black River League Tournament   
 »  1/20  Bunker   (15-11) W   87 - 47 11374 328 88.2 40
 »  1/24  Clearwater   (13-12) W   92 - 36 11404 330 89.2 56
 »  1/25  East Carter   (18-9) W   65 - 50 8552 231 90.7 15
1/28/2020 Fredericktown   (12-14) W   81 - 58 14553 417 95.5 23
1/30/2020 at Arcadia Valley   (13-12) W   94 - 73 12977 370 100.5 21
2/4/2020 at Clearwater   (13-12) W   82 - 45 11404 330 89.2 37
2/8/2020 vs Campbell   (18-6) W   79 - 64 5016 120 103.6 15
2/11/2020 at Eminence   (8-17) W   80 - 37 14130 408 90.2 43
2/14/2020 Lesterville   (21-8) W   77 - 72 6276 163 100.8 5
2/18/2020 Neelyville   (16-10) W   68 - 51 5722 146 78.8 17
2/20/2020 East Carter   (18-9) W   75 - 60 8552 231 90.7 15
2/22/2027 Class 1 District 3 Tournament   
 »  2/22  Marquand-Zion   (0-26) W   82 - 25 19683 577 48.6 57
 »  2/25  Eminence   (8-17) W   59 - 43 14130 408 90.2 16
 »  2/27  Lesterville   (21-8) W   74 - 58 6276 163 116.8 16
 »  3/3  Dora   (32-2) L   54 - 59 363 7 125.2 -5
AVERAGES 9934 280 93.7 31.2

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