VALIDATING THE RATINGS MODEL

I occasionally look at results for boy's games to see how well my ratings model compares to future results.  I looked at last Friday's and Saturday's games in the St. Louis area to see how well the current ratings for Missouri and a few Illinois teams stand up to scrutiny.  Getting the winner is good, coming close on the spread is better.

I looked at 63 games and picked 60 games correctly based on my last ratings blog.  Spreads looked good also, although injuries and illness sometimes factor in.

So here's the analysis and I am attaching four pages of alphabetized ratings for all Missouri boys teams and the Illinois teams I have rated.  Take it to your District play-off game and see how your team does to the spread.

Enjoy




BOY'S BASKETBALL RATINGS CHECK-UP
60 OUT OF 63 CORRECT 95%
CORRECT? Event Score SPREAD ACTUAL
YES Oran-57 at Bloomfield-27 - Final 57-27 30 30.9
YES Valley Park-49 at Whitfield-83 - Final 83-49 34 34.2
YES Puxico-33 vs St. Vincent-73 at Bloomfield - Final 73-33 40 37.8
YES Bayless-41 vs Hancock-73 at Whitfield - Final 73-41 32 38
YES Lovejoy-70 at Brussels-42 - Final 70-42 28 18
YES Principia-27 vs DuBourg-72 at Whitfield - Final 72-27 45 25
YES Meadow Heights-57 vs Valle Catholic-68 at Bloomfield - Final 68-57 11 23.5
YES Maplewood-RH-46 vs Lutheran South-63 at Whitfield - Final 63-46 17 17.3
YES Belleville West-52 at Chaminade-62 - Final 62-52 10 10.1
YES Chaffee-51 vs Advance-83 at Bloomfield - Final 83-51 32 3.6
YES Cardinal Ritter-74 at Tolton-64 - Final 74-64 10 6.3
YES Alton Marquette-74 at Wood River-39 - Final 74-39 35 45.1
INCORRECT New Haven-54 at Sullivan-49 - Final 54-49 5 -13.6
INCORRECT Park Hills Central-71 at Hillsboro-72 - Final 72-71 1 -1.9
YES Chaminade-58 at SLUH-48 - Final 58-48 10 17.6
INCORRECT Marquette-75 at Jennings-62 - Final 75-62 13 -4.4
YES Mascoutah-58 at Waterloo-56 - Final 58-56 2 0.9
YES De Smet-63 at CBC-70 - Final 70-63 7 2
YES Salem, Illinois-41 at Carlyle-50 - Final 50-41 9 -14.3
YES McCluer South-Berkeley-57 at Hazelwood West-76 - Final 76-57 19 37.2
YES Belleville East-58 at Normal Community-54 - Final 58-54 4 13.5
YES Northwest Cedar Hill-45 at Clayton-65 - Final 65-45 20 32
YES Highland-38 at Jerseyville-54 - Final 54-38 16 7.2
YES Alton Marquette-62 at Gibault-26 - Final 62-26 36 18.7
YES Althoff-45 at Carbondale-76 - Final 76-45 31 19.2
YES Northwest Academy-49 at Metro-69 - Final 69-49 20 -3.6
YES St. Charles West-53 at Warrenton-56 - Final 56-53 3 6.5
YES Union-37 at St. Clair-51 - Final 51-37 14 11.9
YES Fort Zumwalt North-76 at Timberland-55 - Final 76-55 21 6.4
YES Bismarck-15 at Herculaneum-79 - Final 79-15 64 48.1
YES Eureka-43 at Lindbergh-44 - Final 44-43 1 -14.6
YES Affton-65 at Normandy-69 - Final 69-65 4 26.1
YES Francis Howell North-39 at Troy Buchanan-64 - Final 64-39 25 21.5
YES Fort Zumwalt South-59 at Fort Zumwalt East-49 - Final 59-49 10 21.4
YES McCluer-53 at Kirkwood-47 - Final 53-47 6 12.6
YES Pacific-50 at Owensville-54 - Final 54-50 4 -11.6
YES Liberty (Wentzville)-52 at Washington-59 - Final 59-52 7 3.4
YES Francis Howell-73 at Holt-56 - Final 73-56 17 21.9
YES Parkway North-84 at Fox-75 - Final 84-75 9 14.1
YES Hazelwood Central-68 at Lafayette-42 - Final 68-42 26 13
YES Webster Groves-63 at Ritenour-44 - Final 63-44 19 31
YES Priory-55 at Westminster-59 - Final 59-55 4 5.7
YES Marion-28 at Centralia, Illinois-45 - Final 45-28 17 6
YES Edinburg-27 at Nokomis-61 - Final 61-27 34 43.2
YES Helias-69 at Borgia-60 - Final 69-60 9 7.4
YES Triad-61 at Civic Memorial-39 - Final 61-39 22 19.4
YES Roosevelt-72 at Farmington-80 - Final 80-72 8 19.4
YES St. James-63 at Hermann-33 - Final 63-33 30 11.5
YES O'Fallon Christian-61 at Lutheran St. Charles-47 - Final 61-47 14 17.3
YES East St. Louis-67 at O'Fallon-45 - Final 67-45 22 -0.9
YES Collinsville-49 at Belleville West-43 - Final 49-43 6 7.7
YES Granite City-45 at Mater Dei-55 - Final 55-45 10 -3.3
YES Edwardsville-40 at Alton-43 - Final 43-40 3 0.8
YES Okawville-39 at Breese Central-24 - Final 39-24 15 -20.2
YES Piasa Southwestern-54 at Carlinville-58 - Final 58-54 4 16
YES Red Bud-61 at Dupo-32 - Final 61-32 29 15.4
YES Columbia-29 at Freeburg-47 - Final 47-29 18 4.4
YES Valmeyer-29 at Marissa-56 - Final 56-29 27 15
YES Festus-57 at Ste. Genevieve-52 - Final 57-52 5 0.7
YES Fort Zumwalt West-38 at Francis Howell Central-54 - Final 54-38 16 3
YES Steeleville-68 at New Athens-59 - Final 68-59 9 23
YES' Cahokia-50 at Mount Vernon, Illinois-68 - Final 68-50 18 22.1
YES Parkway Central-28 at Ladue-63 - Final 63-28 35 7.4

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