Comparing Gramps Ratings to Post Dispatch rankings

Occasionally, I will look at newspaper or media polls to see how well they compare.  I took a look at the P-D poll for large and small schools this week which meant I had to go back and pull up the east side of St. Louis results and fill in some blanks.  There are some great teams on the east side of the river who have done quite well in metro tournaments.  Look for O'Fallon to take the Denver Miller Kirkwood Tournament next week, based on their excellent record.

Right now, I would say the the P-D poll has both CBC and Francis Howell a little over-rated and Mehlville and O'Fallon too low.  The top teams, including Collinsville and Chaminade, and the two I have just mentioned, could be thrown in a hat and be the top four teams in the area.  Excellence on every front.  I would also say that Belleville East and West and Edwardsville are a little under-rated by the poll.

In the small school poll, I don't have a lot to disagree about but I do think that the Illinois small school trio of Freeburg, Alton Marquette and Columbia probably don't belong in the honorable mention group.  There are better area small school teams in Illinois including Madison and Mater Dei (oops, Mater Dei is there....)

I connected on 8 of 10 picks on Tuesday.  The ratings give a pretty good estimate of predictive outcome.  The problem is that these are 16 and 17 year-old kids who have a lot on their plate.  Some times they bring their game and sometimes they don't.  Teams don't always match up well.  I think 80% is a darn good predictor but I keep looking for ways to improve these estimates.

Keep checking in and commenting.  It helps keep me honest.

Post Dispatch January 9th, 2020
Large school
# School Last Week My Rating
1 Collinsville 1 140.0
2 Chaminade 3 140.5
3 CBC 2 132.9
4 Francis Howell 5 131.6
5 Mehlville 7 142.1
6 O'Fallon 6 140.5
7 De Smet 8 133.4
8 McCluer 10 126.8
9 East St. Louis 0 132.4
10 Webster Groves 0 123.9
On The Bubble: 
11 Hazelwood Central 118.4
12 Belleville East 128.2
13 Alton 119.7
14 Washington 116.9
15 Ladue 119.6
16 Belleville West 124.5
17 Edwardsville 122.0
18 Fort Zumwalt North 116.1
19 Summit 116.2
20 Fort Zumwalt South 116.3
Small school
# School Last Week My Rating
1 Vashon 1 132.0
2 Cardinal Ritter 2 129.0
3 Trinity 3 133.1
4 MICDS 0 126.1
5 Lift For Life  7 117.9
6 Confluence 6 119.3
7 Westminster 10 124.4
8 O'Fallon Christian 0 122.9
9 Mater Dei 4 114.5
10 University City 9 116.2
On The Bubble: 
11 St. Dominic 118.8
12 Lutheran North 117.2
13 Soldan 113.1
14 Freeburg 104.1
15 Columbia 106.6
16 Alton Marquette 103.1
17 Borgia 116.4
18 Priory 114.9
19 Hancock 111.0
20 St. Pius X Imperial 107.4

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