First Look - Missouri boys basketball - St. Louis AAA Division I conference

So far, I have taken a quick look at seven St. Louis area conferences (including today), primarily examining statistics on how many returnees and how much of last year's scoring is coming back to each team and prognosticating about how I think this will impact their record and power rating this coming year.

These prognostications are based on digging into Post-Dispatch stats and knowledge gained from Prep Hoops Missouri and the esteemed Earl Austin, Jr, who does a whole lot of work talking to players and watching games throughout the spring, summer and fall, and of course, the winter ball season.  So my advice to you is, if you haven't already done so, get a subscription to the on-line Prep Hoops Missouri for $100 a year and if you can't afford that, try a one month subscription for $14.99 for a couple of months.  But don't stop ready and liking my blogs.  Once I finish these scratch the surface analyses, I will start digging into my high school power ratings, which are based on a statistical algorithm and I will guarantee that no one else will have power ratings for every high school in Missouri.  SO DON'T STOP READING MY BLOG OR YOU WILL MISS OUT THIS WINTER.

I know, from Earl's cat, Godfrey, that he will be doing an in-depth analysis of all of these same conferences next month.  I know, because the cat was sitting on the To-Do list.  I don't know how Earl does it, but he not only gets around to all the summer and fall leagues and tournaments, but he makes his rounds to girls softball and volleyball, boys football and soccer, swimming, hockey, etc. etc etc. (as the King of Siam used to say).  Earl knows these kids and will write up a great analysis of each conference with that personal touch.  Maybe he will even borrow a little from my blog.... LOL.

So, here is another "scratch" about the Catholic AAA Division I conference with St. Mary's Father Tolton (over by Jeff City), St. Francis Borgia (Washington), St. Dominic's and Cardinal Ritter, another excellent conference with teams that find their way to the state play-downs in class 3 and 4 on a highly consistent basis.  Programs that are steeped in a basketball tradition of excellence.

AAA Division I		2018-2019 Record		#	%	%	Avg 2020	Avg 2019
	2019 Rating	Wins	Losses	Returnees	Return	Scoring	Hgt(")	Hgt(")
St. Mary's	106	18	13	8	67%	60%	74	74.9
Father Tolton	116	18	7	8	80%	n.d.	74.9	75.1
Borgia	109	16	12	11	85%	71%	70.5	73.5
St. Dominic	108	11	16	4	33%	20%	74	72.9
Cardinal Ritter	123	20	8	21	84%	73%	74.3	72.4
averages	112.4	16.6	11.2	10.4	70%	56%	73.54	73.76

St. Mary's

Returnees:
Brandon Taylor, Sofora Rasas, Wunya Brown, Noah Hamilton and Cole Miller (all in the Prep Hoops 2020 and 2021 Missouri player rankings)
Graduates:
Yuri Collins and Donavan Parker (40% of scoring)
Outlook:
St. Mary's was down a bit this past year with 18 wins but they have a solid core of Tayler, Rasas, Brown, Hamilton and Miller returning with 60% of their offense and two thirds of last year's team.  That bodes well for St. Mary's getting back to 20 wins and a 115 rating.  It won't be enough to compete with Tolton and Ritter for the league title, but it will create a huge challenge for non-conference opponents and get them pretty deep into post season play.

Father Tolton

Returnees:

Coban Porter, Nate Schwartze, Duece Tatum and Jonny Berndt

Graduates:

Robert Hunter and Beau Washer

Outlook:

I don't have any scoring stats for Tolton because they are off the grid with the Post-Dispatch but they bring back four highly touted seniors that are all ranked in the top 200 Prep Hoops Missouri 2020 player rankings.  Can they compete with Ritter for the conference championship?  Don't know, but I do expect Tolton to crack 20-22 wins and a 120 rating, which rank them in the top 20 teams in Missouri.

Borgia

Returnees:

Alex Brinkman, Cole Weber and Trent Strubberg

Graduates:

Brendan Smith and Will Elbert (29% of scoring)

Outlook:

Borgia has a strong tradition of winning basketball and this group of returnees should help lift them back to 20 wins and 110 plus rating.  Brinkman, Weber and Stubberg will be a great core to build around.  They might struggle with Ritter and St. Mary's but they will give a lot of non-conference teams fits.  I know that will make Dr. Scott Unnerstall, my Washington-based chiropractor happy (and I like him "happy" when I am laying face down on his table).  If you need your back cracked, he's the man.

St. Dominic

Returnees:

Transfer of Brendon Dieter of Troy will help sole returnee Anthony Lewis

Graduates:

Brennan Kiger, Josh Willenbrink, Matt Hanson, Jack Niggemeier and Natel Heilegenstrein (80% of scoring)

Outlook:

As good as the outlook is for the other AAA Division I teams, St. Dominic faces the unfortunate task of replacing 80% of their scoring and a large group of seniors.  The transfer of Brendan Dieter from Troy Buchanan will help but he and Anthony Lewis will need a whole lot of help from the JV and freshman squads.  10 wins and 105 rating might be a stretch and winning any games on the conference schedule might be asking too much.  The coaches have a huge challenge this year and let's hope they have a rabbit or two in their hats.

Cardinal Ritter

Returnees:

Transfer of Ilyan Harris, Mario Fleming, Gary Clark Brandon Ellington, Luther Burden and Glenn Valentine

Graduates:

Malek Davis (27% of scoring)

Outlook:

Ritter has been lights-out good, year in and year out, and most of these players are on the Team Ramey AAU summer teams, so they have the familiarity of playing with the same guys.  Ramey actually has several teams because there is so much talent in the pool.  21 players return with some varsity experience and Ritter only loses Malek Davis and about a quarter of their scoring from last year.  Fleming, who has developed a nice outside shot to go with his dominent inside game, is nearly impossible to guard and when you add in the other returnees and Biscuit Harris, who transferred from Marquette, this team will be a real handful for the top teams in the region, any class.  The only thing keeping Ritter from 30 wins this season, is that the coaches haven't schedule enough games.  LOL.  A power rating of 130 is probable.